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Full Description
Before future-oriented information can be used as a basis for decision making in economics or business administration, it must be understood on a methodological level. This book provides decision makers with a thorough understanding of the possibilities offered by various forecasting methods as well as their limitations. If managers rely on a forecast with a long-term perspective to guide them in making short-term decisions, planning deficiencies will likely result. Likewise, if managers use short-term forecasts to inform their long-term strategic vision, failure could easily ensue. Graf provides the tools necessary to sidestep the common pitfall of using the wrong forecasting technique for the wrong purpose.
This is not a detailed examination of the mathematical and statistical tools of empirical economic research. Instead, forecasting methods are explained so that they can be understood by the managers who employ them in their decision making. Graf demonstrates that understanding and—in special cases—cooperation between forecast developers and users is crucial to creating an effective forecast that results in informed management decisions. He discusses traditional, long-term, macroeconomic, and global economic forecasting; the scenario technique as a central instrument of long-term forecasting; and short-term economic and market forecasting.
Contents
Preface Forecasting and Futures Research--an Unequal Pair Fundamentals of Human Behavior Dimensions of Forecasting Evaluation Criteria The Discrepancy between Reality and Forecast A Common Language Long-Term Economic Forecasting Topic under Investigation and Information Sought The Evolution of Economies Impossibility of (Long-term) Forecasting Macro-Economic Perspectives Methods for Long-Term Forecasting Working with Global Models--Learning and Forecasts Delphi Technique Cross Impact Analysis Environmental Scenarios for Strategy Development Scenarios as a Reflection of Integrated Management Scenarios as an Instrument of Forecasting Working with Scenarios at the Company Level Introduction of the Scenario Method in Company Policy Short-Term Economic and Market Forecasting Topic under Investigation and Information Sought Economic Forecasting Market Forecasting Forecasting on the Basis of Time Series Analyses Operating with Growth and Life Cycle Curves Forecasts Based on the Theory of Cause and Effect Transformation of Market Forecasts into Company Decisions In Place of Closing Remarks: What Must Be Looked Out for in Economic Forecasting? Bibliography Index
