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基本説明
New in paperback. Hardcover was published in 1998.
Full Description
This general introduction to the ideas and techniques required for the mathematical modelling of diseases begins with an outline of some disease statistics dating from Daniel Bernoulli's 1760 smallpox data. The authors then describe simple deterministic and stochastic models in continuous and discrete time for epidemics taking place in either homogeneous or stratified (non-homogeneous) populations. Several techniques for constructing and analysing models are provided, mostly in the context of viral and bacterial diseases of human populations. These models are contrasted with models for rumours and vector-borne diseases like malaria. Questions of fitting data to models, and their use in understanding methods for controlling the spread of infection, are discussed. Exercises and complementary results at the end of each chapter extend the scope of the text, which will be useful for students taking courses in mathematical biology who have some basic knowledge of probability and statistics.
Contents
Preface; 1. Some history; 2. Deterministic models; 3. Stochastic models in continuous time; 4. Stochastic models in discrete time; 5. Rumours: modelling spread and its cessation; 6. Fitting epidemic data; 7. The control of epidemics; References and author index; Subject index.
