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Full Description
The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable and less fraught with uncertainty, those possibilities had a good chance of being the right ones. Now, however, the only given constant in a world of complexity is change itself. In an environment where information technology is driving an information revolution, and where the rules can be rewritten with breathtaking speed, planning can seem more based on luck than foresight. There are methods for coping with unpredictability. The Scenario planning techniques described in this book will help to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Based on Gill Ringlanda s previous book Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future, this updated and expanded version focuses specifically on scenarios in public policy. The use of scenarios to create a framework for a shared vision of the future, by promoting discussion and building consensus outside a business environment, is examined.Ringland also looks at the similarities between organizations which have used scenarios successfully -- such as the importance of communication via storyline and image. Scenarios in Public Policy and its companion, Scenario Planning in Business are both practical paperback books that each expand on specific areas of Scenario Planning. They will appeal to managers looking to learn about and apply a particular aspect of scenario planning. Reviews of Gill Ringlanda s prevoius work: "Nobody can ignore the future. This book is a must--read for any manager aspiring to put scenarios into practice." Arie de Geus, Former Director of Shell International Petroleum and author of a The Living Companya "(Gill Ringland) offers us a mechanism by which to bring structure to information technology and other forms of complexity, offering us the vital ability to understand the dynamics of change." Oliver Sparrow, Chatham House Forum
Contents
About the Author Acknowledgements Abbreviation Introduction Part I: Scenarios in Public Policy Summary Four Scenarios for Public Education in Seattle Rotterdam and Arnhem Mission and Consequences in Bueren Scottish Enterprisea s use of Scenarios Tackling big issues in 24 hours Scenarios for Sustainable Development VISIONS scenarios on the future of Europe Foresight Futures 2001 Lessons Learned Part II: Scenarios in the Public Sector Summary US General Services Agency-- Scenarios for the Federal Workplace Consignia and Scenario Thinking Scenarios at the dti Scenario Planning goes to Rome Decision Making in the Public Sector Lessons Learned Part III: Making scenarios work Summary The Environment for Scenario Thinking The Stages of a Project Getting started Deciding the question Interviews and workshops Scenario creation Scenarios to plans Linking Scenarios into the Organisation Main points Part IV: Scenario Thinking Summary Scenarios and Strategy Strategy and Scenarios in the Public Sector Where are we now? Forecasts Evolutionary models for cultural change Comparison of Global Scenarios Where next? Conclusions References Index
