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Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 125.
This volume provides a comprehensive overview of our current observational knowledge, theoretical understanding, and numerical capability with regard to the phenomena known as space weather. Space weather refers to conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems, and can endanger human life or health. The rapid advance in these technologies has provided us with unprecedented capability and convenience, and we have come to rely on them more and more. Technology has reduced society's risk to many kinds of natural disasters, but through its own vulnerability, it has actually increased society's risk to space weather. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socioeconomic losses.
Contents
Preface
Paul Song, Howard J. Singer, and George L. Siscoe ix
SECTION I: Introduction
The U. S. National Space Weather Program: A Retrospective
R. M. Robinson and R. A. Behnke 1
Space Weather Effects on Technologies
Louis J. Lanzerotti 11
Space Weather Forecasting: A Grand Challenge
H. J. Singer, G. R. Heckman, and J. W. Hirman 23
Space Weather: Lessons from the Meteorologists
Robert R McCoy 31
What We Must Know About Solar Particle Events to Reduce the Risk to Astronauts
Ron Turner 39
Living With a Star
George L. Withbroe 45
Space Weather: European Space Agency Perspectives
E. J. Daly and A. Hilgers 53
Space Weather: Japanese Perspectives
Y. Kamide 59
Space Weather: Russian Perspectives
M. Panasyuk 65
SECTION II: Origin of Space Weather: The Sun and Its Influence
Solar Wind and Interplanetary Magnetic Field: A Tutorial
C. T. Russell 73
Space Weather and the Changing Sun
E. N. Parker 91
SEPs: Space Weather Hazard in Interplanetary Space
Donald V. Reames 101
Origin and Properties of Solar Energetic Particles in Space
5. W. Kahler 109
The Solar Sources of Geoeffective Structures
D. F. Webb, N. U. Crooker, S. P. Plunkett, and O. C. St. Cyr 123
Theory of Coronal Mass Ejections
James A. Klimchuk 143
MHD Modeling of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere: Comparison With Observations
Pete Riley, Jon Linker, Zoran Mikic, and Roberto Lionello 159
From Sun to Earth: Multiscale MHD Simulations of Space Weather
Jamas I. Gombosi, Darren L. DeZeeuw, Clinton P. T. Groth, Kenneth G. Powell, C. Robert Clauer, and Paul Song 1 69
Visualizing CMEs and Predicting Geomagnetic Storms from Solar Magnetic Fields
Yan Li, Janet G. Luhmann, J. Todd. Hoeksema, Xuepu Zhao, and C. NickArge 177
Prediction of Southward IMF Bz
J. K. Chao and H. H. Chen 1 83
Specifying Geomagnetic Cutoffs for Solar Energetic Particles
John W. Freeman and Seth Orloff 191
Status of Cycle 23 Forecasts
David H. Hathaway, Robert M. Wilson, and Edwin J. Reichmann 195
Solar Activity Predicted with Artificial Intelligence
Henrik Lundstedt 201
The STEREO Space Weather Broadcast
O. C. St. Cyr and J. M. Davila 205
SECTION III: Specification and Prediction of the Magnetosphere
70 Years of Magnetospheric Modeling
G. L. Siscoe 211
MHD Simulation of Magnetospheric Transport at the Mesoscale
W. W. White, J. A. Schoendorf, K. D. Siebert, N. C. Maynard, D. R. Weimer, G. L Wilson, B. U. O. Sonnerup, G. L. Siscoe, and G. M. Erickson 229
Modeling Extreme Compression of the Magnetosphere: Results From a Global MHD
Simulation of the May 4, 1998 Event
J. Berchem, M. El-Alaoui, and M. Ashour-Abdalla 241
Model Predictions of Magnetosheath Conditions
P. Song 249
Nowcasting and Forecasting the Magnetopause and Bow Shock Locations
Based on Empirical Models and Real-Time Solar Wind Data
S. M. Petrinec 257
Modeling Inner Magnetospheric Electrodynamics
F. R. Toffoletto, R. W. Spiro, R. A. Wolf, J. Birn, and M. Hesse 265
Empirical Magnetic Field Models for the Space Weather Program
N. A. Tsyganenko 273
Dynamic Radiation Belt Modeling at Air Force Research Laboratory
J. M. Albert, D. H. Brautigam, R. V Hilmer, and G. P. Ginet 281
Radiation Belt Electron Acceleration by ULF Wave Drift Resonance:
Simulation of 1997 and 1998 Storms
Mary K. Hudson, Scot R. Elkington, John G. Lyon, M. \A/iltberger, and Marc Lessard 289
Modeling the Transport of Energetic Particles in the Magnetosphere with Salammbo
D. Boscher and S. Bourdarie 297
The Search for Predictable Features of Relativistic Electron Events:
Results from the GEM Storms Campaign
G. D. Reeves, K. L. McAdams, R. H. \A/. Friedel, and J. E. Cayton 305
Forecasting Kilovolt Electrons
R. A. Wolf, R. W. Spiro, T. W. Garner, and E R. Toffoletto 313
Specification of Energetic Magnetospheric Electrons
D. E Moorer and D. N. Baker 321
Predicting Geomagnetic Storms as a Space Weather Project
Syun-lchiAkasofu 329
Predicting Geomagnetic Activity: The Ds^ Index
Robert L. McPherron and Paul O'Brien 339
Space Weather Effects on Power Systems
D. H. Boteler 347
Advanced Geomagnetic Storm Forecasting for the Electric Power Industry
John Kappenman 353
SECTION IV: Specification and Prediction of the Ionosphere and Thermosphere
Ionospheric Climatology and Weather Disturbances: A Tutorial
R. W. Schunk 359
On Forecasting Thermospheric and Ionospheric Disturbances in Space Weather Events
R. G. Roble 369
Geomagnetic Storm Simulation With a Coupled Magnetosphere-lonosphere-Thermosphere Model
Joachim Raeder, Yongli Wang, and Timothy J. Fuller-Rowell 377
Forecasting Ionospheric Electric Fields: An Interplanetary Coupling Perspective
Nelson C. Maynard and William J. Burke 385
Capturing the Storm-Time F-Region Ionospheric Response in an Empirical Model
T J. Fuller-Rowell, M. V. Codrescu, and E. A. Araujo-Pradere 393
Ionospheric Response for the Sept. 24-25, 1998 Magnetic Cloud Event
R. M. Winglee, D. Chua, M. Brittnacher, and G. K. Parks 403
FAST Observations of Ion Outflow with Magnetic Storms
J. P. McFadden, Y. K. Tung, C. W. Carlson, R. J. Strangeway, E. Moebius, and L M. Kistler 413
Specification and Forecasting of Outages on Satellite Communication and Navigation Systems
S. Basu and K. M. Groves 423
New Systems for Space Based Monitoring of Ionospheric Irregularities
and Radio Wave Scintillations
P. A. Bernhardt, J. D. Huba, C. A. Selcher, K. F. Dymond, G. R. Carruthers, G. Bust, C. Rocken, and T L Beach 431
