Uncertainty : A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis

Morgan, Millett Granger/ Henrion, Max

Cambridge University Press（1992/06発売）

• 製本 Paperback:紙装版/ペーパーバック版／ページ数 346 p.
• 言語 ENG
• 商品コード 9780521427449
• DDC分類 658.155

Full Description

The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty.

Contents

Preface; 1. Introduction; 2. Recent milestones; 3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis; 4. The nature and sources of uncertainty; 5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation; 6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty; 7. Performing probability assessment; 8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty; 9. The graphic communication of uncertainty; 10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis; 11. Large and complex models; 12. The value of knowing how little you know; Index.